Gold prices stabilized on Friday but remain under downward pressure, moving within a bearish channel on the four-hour chart. The yellow metal is currently looking to break above the daily pivot point at $4044, heading toward resistance levels of $4102 then $4156. On the downside, if the price fails to break above the aforesaid pivot point, it may retreat toward support levels near $3959 then $3898.
Gold prices remained under pressure on Friday as investors weighed mixed developments across global markets. While crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to their highest levels since the end of the war, signaling improving supply flows, oil prices declined after a commercial vessel was struck near Oman, highlighting persistent geopolitical risks in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, adding further pressure on the precious metal.
Market Watch
Strait of Hormuz loadings hit post-war highs
Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed to their highest level since the outbreak of the war, supported by the gradual resumption of maritime traffic following the ceasefire agreement, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler.
The data showed a notable recovery in crude exports through the strategic waterway over recent days, with tankers carrying more than 10 million barrels of crude oil transiting the strait in a single day. Total volumes transported over the past 24 hours exceeded 20 million barrels, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption.
Despite the rebound, shipping activity remains below pre-war levels, as many shipping companies and tanker owners continue to exercise caution amid lingering security risks and uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire.
Analysts said the increase reflects the ability of Gulf oil producers to gradually restore export flows, particularly amid resilient demand from Asia. However, they noted that the sustainability of shipments will largely depend on geopolitical stability and the continued security of navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
Dollar on track for second straight weekly gain
The U.S. dollar is on track to post a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, alongside resilient U.S. economic data and sustained demand for dollar-denominated assets.
The U.S. Dollar Index remained near its highest level in more than a year as investors assessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Recent inflation data and the continued strength of the labor market reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, with markets still pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes in the coming months.
The greenback also drew support from continued capital inflows into U.S. assets, backed by the resilience of the U.S. economy and elevated Treasury yields. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced demand for some traditional safe-haven assets but had little impact on the dollar’s appeal.
Analysts believe the dollar’s near-term performance will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, which are expected to shape market expectations for monetary policy during the second half of the year.
Oil falls as a ship is hit near Oman
Oil prices declined during Friday’s trading after a commercial vessel was struck near the coast of Oman, reviving concerns over maritime security in the region. However, investors viewed the incident as having a limited impact on global oil supplies.
The decline came despite ongoing security tensions along key shipping routes, as market participants assessed whether the incident would disrupt crude shipments through the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. So far, there have been no indications of significant interruptions to oil exports from the Gulf.
Crude prices also came under pressure from profit-taking following the strong gains recorded earlier this month, while easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the continued flow of Gulf oil exports reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Analysts said markets will continue to closely monitor any further security developments in the region, as any escalation could reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices. At the same time, investors remain focused on global demand prospects and upcoming production policy decisions by OPEC+.
Looking Ahead
Markets are awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to provide fresh insights into household confidence and the outlook for consumer spending. Investors will closely monitor the data for signs of how consumers perceive current economic conditions and inflation, as the report could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path and drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and precious metals.