Gold rebounded from its lowest level since March 31 on Thursday, as it rose above EMA (9) on the four-hour chart. The yellow metal is currently struggling to reclaim the key level of $4600, as it hit the first daily resistance level. A break above R1 could help prices resume rebounding toward the second resistance level of $4655. On the downside, if the price drops below the daily pivot point, it may test support levels of $4499 and then $4454.
Global markets are closely watching accelerating geopolitical and economic developments as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to rise, following reports that Washington is considering military action to break the deadlock in ceasefire negotiations. This has increased investor concerns over the stability of oil supplies in the Middle East. Amid these tensions, Brent crude prices surged to their highest level since March 2022, reaching $126 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar retreated after reaching its highest level in more than two weeks, as investors reassessed expectations for U.S. monetary policy and awaited the release of key economic data that could shape market direction in the coming period.
Market Watch
Reports: United States considers military action against Iran to break deadlock in ceasefire negotiations
International media reports revealed on Thursday that the United States is considering new military options against Iran to break the deadlock obstructing ceasefire negotiations, amid rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and ongoing disputes over freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a report published by Reuters, citing informed sources, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to receive a briefing from the commander of U.S. Central Command regarding potential military plans against Iran. These plans reportedly include “rapid and intense” strikes targeting strategic infrastructure, aimed at pushing Tehran back to the negotiating table under more flexible terms.
The reports also indicated that among the options under consideration is taking control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it for commercial navigation, in addition to the possibility of conducting special operations to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which Washington views as a key pressure point in the nuclear file.
On the other hand, Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and insists on its right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while considering continued U.S. military and naval pressure as a major obstacle to any diplomatic progress.
These developments quickly impacted global markets, with oil prices rising noticeably as Brent crude gained on investor concerns over potential new supply disruptions from the Middle East, especially amid continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil trade routes.
Analysts believe that any potential military escalation could further complicate the regional landscape and drive greater market volatility, particularly as investors await new signals regarding the future of U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Brent crude prices reached their highest level since March 2022 at $126 per barrel
Brent crude prices surged during Thursday’s trading session to their highest level since March 2022, reaching $126 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil trade routes.
According to Reuters reports, Brent crude futures rose by more than $8 to reach $126.09 per barrel, marking their highest level since March 2022, before trimming some of the gains later as markets remained cautious over developments in the U.S.-Iran crisis.
This sharp increase came amid rising fears of a worsening conflict between the United States and Iran, particularly as ceasefire negotiations remain stalled and restrictions continue to affect oil tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing investor concerns over global supply shortages and higher energy costs.
U.S. statements regarding the possibility of maintaining the naval blockade for a longer period, along with discussions of new military options against Iran, also added upward pressure on oil prices, with expectations that any further escalation could push prices even higher in the coming period.
Analysts believe that if the crisis continues without a quick diplomatic resolution, it could trigger a new wave of global inflation, especially with rising shipping and energy costs. This would place additional pressure on major central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, regarding upcoming interest rate decisions.
Investors are currently watching for new signals regarding the future of U.S.-Iran relations, as well as decisions by OPEC+ on production levels, which could play a decisive role in determining oil price trends in the coming weeks.
Dollar declined after jumping to its highest level in more than two weeks
The U.S. dollar declined during Thursday’s trading session after reaching its highest level in more than two weeks, supported by rising global market concerns and higher oil prices, before giving up part of its gains as investor risk appetite improved and markets awaited further U.S. economic data.
According to a report published by Reuters, the dollar had climbed to its strongest level in over two weeks after several U.S. Federal Reserve officials adopted a more hawkish tone regarding monetary policy, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in a month and increasing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency.
The sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude climbing to nearly $126 per barrel—its highest level since March 2022—also supported the dollar, especially as concerns grew over supply disruptions caused by ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and the risks of further escalation in the Middle East.
However, the dollar later retreated as some market fears eased and investors began reassessing expectations for U.S. monetary policy, particularly after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged despite continued warnings about inflationary pressures and rising energy costs.
Analysts noted that the dollar’s movements in the coming period will remain closely tied to geopolitical developments, along with upcoming U.S. growth and inflation data, which will play a major role in shaping interest rate expectations and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
Investors are also closely watching decisions by major central banks, especially the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, amid expectations of further global monetary tightening, which could increase volatility in currency markets in the days ahead.
Looking Ahead
Global markets are awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data today, most notably the Advance U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which reflects the pace of economic growth during the latest quarter, along with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking inflation. These indicators are gaining particular importance amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future path of U.S. monetary policy, as investors seek to assess the strength of the economy and the likelihood of interest rates remaining higher for longer or the possibility of a shift toward monetary easing in the coming period.