Gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday but continue to show negative signals as they remain below the uptrend line on the four-hour chart. Meanwhile, the yellow metal is poised to resume its decline, targeting support levels at $4,306 then $4,277. On the upside, if the price rises above the daily pivot point of $4,367, it is likely to climb toward resistance levels at $4,406 then $4,437.
Global markets remained focused on rising geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy, as President Donald Trump said that no talks are currently taking place or scheduled with Iran. At the same time, oil prices continued to climb amid growing concerns over exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-month lows as Treasury yields eased. Against this backdrop, gold prices edged higher, supported by dollar weakness and persistent geopolitical risks, although the precious metal remained under pressure as investors awaited further signals from the Federal Reserve and developments in the Middle East.
Market Watch
Dollar Hovers Near Multi-Month Lows
The U.S. dollar remained near its lowest levels in several months on Wednesday, as Treasury yields eased and investors turned cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, seeking fresh signals on the central bank’s monetary policy and interest-rate outlook.
The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell around 0.21% to 99.43, remaining close to its multi-month lows. Meanwhile, the euro rose to around $1.1585, while the British pound advanced to approximately $1.3554. The Japanese yen also strengthened, moving away from the 160-yen-per-dollar level.
The dollar’s weakness came as U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to around 4.686%, while the 30-year yield eased to approximately 5.271%. Lower Treasury yields generally reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, particularly as expectations for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve have diminished.
The greenback has also faced pressure following a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators, which pointed to some moderation in economic activity and labor-market conditions. At the same time, inflation has remained relatively contained, prompting investors to reduce expectations for further interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
According to the latest Reuters poll, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate within the 3.50%–3.75% range through the end of 2026, amid signs of slowing economic activity and easing inflation pressures.
Overall, the dollar’s near-term performance is likely to remain closely tied to upcoming U.S. economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. A more hawkish tone from policymakers could provide temporary support for the greenback, while continued weakness in economic indicators could keep the currency under pressure.
Oil Prices Continue to Rise as Concerns Grow Over Strait of Hormuz Exports
Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty surrounding tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persisted and concerns grew over potential disruptions to energy exports from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose around 0.8% to $91.71 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained approximately 0.9% to $85.70 per barrel in early trading. Both benchmarks had closed at their highest levels in more than three weeks on Tuesday, amid fading hopes for a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
Market attention remains focused on the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, amid conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran over whether the waterway is open to vessels. While U.S. President Donald Trump said the strait remained open, Iran maintained that it was still closed to maritime traffic. The uncertainty has prompted several shipowners to avoid the area, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to oil and gas exports.
The Strait of Hormuz remains strategically important to global energy markets, as a significant share of the world’s oil and gas trade passes through the waterway. Any prolonged restrictions on shipping or escalation of security risks could therefore increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, particularly if supply disruptions persist.
In an effort to reduce the impact of shipping disruptions, the Iraqi government approved a new mechanism for exporting crude oil through international and domestic companies and via multiple export routes. The mechanism is scheduled to take effect on September 1 for three months, as Baghdad seeks alternative channels should difficulties in transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz continue.
Meanwhile, reports indicated that two major Chinese shipping companies had suspended sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb due to security concerns. The companies have reportedly begun gathering oil cargoes outside the Gulf region, highlighting the growing risks facing shipping companies and energy traders.
On the U.S. inventory front, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated declines in crude oil and distillate inventories last week, while gasoline stocks increased. Investors are awaiting official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for further indications of supply and demand conditions in the world’s largest oil market.
Oil’s recent gains followed an increase of more than $2 per barrel on Monday, as investors became increasingly pessimistic about diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran. Prices then closed at their highest level since July 24 on Tuesday, reflecting continued concerns over global oil supplies.
Oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations between the United States and Iran. Continued disruptions to shipping or a broader escalation of geopolitical risks could keep the risk premium elevated and support crude prices, while improved maritime traffic and the restoration of disrupted supplies could put downward pressure on prices.
Trump: No Talks Are Taking Place with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump said there are currently no talks or communications taking place, or scheduled, with Iran, highlighting the continued diplomatic deadlock between Washington and Tehran amid rising regional tensions and growing concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform that “there are no talks taking place, or even scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” signaling that diplomatic efforts between the two sides remain stalled.
The comments come as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate following the failure of efforts to reach an agreement aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries. The latest developments have also coincided with the expiration of a temporary arrangement reached in June, with no significant progress reported on key issues including U.S. sanctions and regional security.
Trump’s remarks also appeared to contrast with earlier comments by Jared Kushner, the U.S. president’s son-in-law and special envoy, who indicated that communications with Iran had continued and may have become more active. The conflicting statements have added to uncertainty over whether the U.S. administration is considering a renewed diplomatic track with Tehran.
Trump also said that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and that the U.S. naval blockade remains in place. Iran, however, has maintained that the waterway remains closed to shipping. The conflicting positions have contributed to a significant slowdown in maritime traffic through the strategic passage, which is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and gas shipments.
The uncertainty surrounding the strait has also increased pressure on global energy markets. Oil prices extended their gains for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by a higher geopolitical risk premium and concerns over potential disruptions to crude exports from the Gulf region.
Markets are closely monitoring any new developments between Washington and Tehran, particularly as the absence of diplomatic channels could increase the risk of further military escalation and prolonged disruptions to trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Any additional escalation could put further upward pressure on oil prices while increasing volatility across global financial markets.
For now, the U.S. administration appears focused on maintaining economic and political pressure on Iran rather than immediately returning to formal negotiations, while Tehran continues to insist on conditions related to the lifting of sanctions and the cessation of military threats before making progress toward a new agreement.
Looking Ahead
Investors are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Market participants will closely examine the document for indications of policymakers’ views on the future path of interest rates. The tone of the minutes could have a significant impact on the dollar, Treasury yields and precious metals in the coming sessions.