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Gold Falls Ahead of US NFP Data

Gold Falls Ahead of US NFP Data
Youssef Eid

June 29, 2026

Gold prices fell 1.3% on Monday, erasing most of the previous session’s 1.5% gains, and are currently trading near the critical level of $4,000 per ounce.

The yellow metal is currently trading below the weekly pivot point at $4,089, stabilizing below this level is likely to trigger a resumption of the downtrend, with the next support levels targeted at $3,951 then $3,827.  

If gold breaks above the weekly pivot point at $4,089, it will retest the first resistance level at $4,220; a break above this level would be a positive signal that could pave the way for prices to rise toward the next resistance level near $4,351. 

In terms of geopolitical tension, Iran and the United States ​agreed to halt recent hostilities in the Gulf and renew talks regarding their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. official said on Sunday, raising ‌hopes of saving an interim peace deal that was under pressure from days of tit-for-tat strikes.

“Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU. Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely,” the official said, referring to the 14-point memorandum of understanding that was agreed on June 17 under which the strait would be re-opened for traffic.

Axios, which first reported the cessation ​of hostilities, citing a senior U.S. official, said talks would resume Tuesday in Qatar.

A return to diplomacy would follow several days of strikes and counterstrikes since ​an Iranian projectile hit a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with both the U.S. and Iran accusing the ⁠other of breaking an interim ceasefire that was agreed to on June 17.

Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain early on Sunday, shortly ​after President Donald Trump threatened that the Islamic Republic would cease to exist if it did not honor the agreement to end the war.

From a fundamental perspective, the number of new jobs added in the U.S. nonfarm sector will be released, along with the U.S. unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected coming in at 114,000, down from 172,000 but above the 100,000 level for a third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the jobless rate is anticipated to stand at 4.3%.

A separate figure from the Institute for Supply Management could also offer a glimpse into the state of the American manufacturing sector — and how these businesses are handling an easing spike in energy prices.

ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for June is seen coming in at 53.7, compared to 54.0 in May. A reading above 50 denotes expansion.