Gold fell on Tuesday, heading toward a decline for the second consecutive session, as it continues to move within a bearish channel. Meanwhile, gold is attempting to hold above SMA (9) on the four-hour chart; if it succeeds, it could retest resistance levels at $4,209 then $4,256. On the downside, if the price continues to fall, it may test support levels near $4,091 then $4,041.   

The U.S. dollar regained ground after last week’s weaker-than-expected employment data triggered a sharp selloff, while oil prices hovered near levels seen before the Iran-Israel conflict as geopolitical risk premiums continued to ease. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump said there would either be a new agreement with Iran or the United States would “finish the job,” underscoring Washington’s firm stance as markets continue to assess the outlook for global energy supplies, monetary policy, and investor sentiment.

Market Watch

Dollar Recovers After Last Week’s Disappointing U.S. Jobs Data

The U.S. dollar recovered some of its recent losses on Tuesday after coming under heavy pressure at the end of last week following weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary policy stance.

The June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed that the economy added around 57,000 jobs, well below market expectations, while previous months’ figures were revised lower. The disappointing data prompted investors to scale back expectations for further interest rate hikes in the coming months, sending the dollar to its lowest level in several weeks.

However, the greenback regained ground at the start of the week, supported by profit-taking and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Investors are also awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday for further clues about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Cautious sentiment across global markets has additionally boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Analysts believe the dollar’s rebound does not necessarily signal the end of downward pressure, as its near-term direction will remain closely tied to incoming U.S. economic data, particularly inflation and labor market indicators, which are expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the months ahead.

Oil Prices Trade Near Pre-Iran War Levels

Oil prices traded near their pre-Iran war levels on Tuesday as geopolitical risk premiums continued to fade, with investors shifting their focus toward global supply prospects and the outlook for demand.

Brent crude futures traded around $72.8 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near $69.3 per barrel, remaining close to the levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran-Israel conflict. The market has stabilized as concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East have eased.

Prices held steady despite lingering security tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, as market participants increasingly expect oil flows from the region to remain uninterrupted. Sentiment was also weighed by expectations of higher global supplies after OPEC+ agreed to increase production from August, alongside stronger output from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia’s decision to lower its official selling prices for Asian buyers in an effort to protect market share.

Analysts said the oil market has largely moved beyond the immediate impact of the Iran conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium continuing to unwind. Attention has now shifted to global demand fundamentals, particularly China’s economic recovery, and the market’s ability to absorb additional crude supplies during the second half of the year. However, prices are expected to remain sensitive to any renewed geopolitical tensions or disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump: There Will Be a Deal with Iran or the United States Will “Finish the Job”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States still prefers to reach an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program but warned that Washington is prepared to take decisive action if diplomatic efforts fail, declaring that “there will be a deal with Iran, or the United States will finish the job.”

Speaking during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump stressed that his administration remains open to resuming negotiations with Tehran but will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. He added that the United States had achieved “major success” in degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities through recent military strikes, arguing that Tehran is now in a weaker position than it was just weeks ago.

The remarks come as Iran prepares to meet with international mediators in Doha in an effort to revive nuclear negotiations. Iranian officials have reiterated that the upcoming talks will not include direct meetings with U.S. representatives at this stage. Analysts say the diplomatic activity reflects ongoing efforts to restart negotiations despite the military tensions that have recently gripped the region.

Market analysts believe Trump’s comments combine diplomatic outreach with continued pressure on Tehran, as the U.S. administration seeks to encourage concessions on Iran’s nuclear program while keeping the option of further military action on the table if negotiations fail. Investors are expected to closely monitor developments in the talks, given their potential impact on oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and overall market risk sentiment.

Looking Ahead

Markets are closely watching for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Governor Michelle Bowman’s upcoming speech, looking for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors will scrutinize her remarks for any signals on the path of interest rates, the inflation outlook, and the strength of the U.S. economy following last week’s weaker-than-expected employment data. Any indication regarding the timing of potential policy adjustments could influence expectations for future Fed decisions and drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, gold, and broader financial markets.